POLYMARKET WEATHER ARBITRAGE

The forecast
moved. The market
hasn't yet.

ForecastEdge finds the gap between professional weather forecasts and Polymarket odds. When NOAA updates, you trade before the crowd reprices.

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SAMPLE EDGE SCANNER
NYC High Temp NOAA: 42-45F (89%) +$0.74 edge
London Low Temp Met Office: 3-5C (82%) +$0.41 edge
Seoul Precip KMA: No Rain (95%) -$0.02 skip
Chicago High NOAA: 38-42F (76%) +$0.53 edge
The Opportunity

$40M+ extracted from Polymarket arbitrage in one year

Weather markets are the softest target. Professional forecasts are 85%+ accurate 1-2 days out. Polymarket odds are set by regular people guessing. That mismatch is systematic, repeatable, and profitable.

$2M+
Top weather trader profit (gopfan2)
8x
Average return on weather arb ($2.3K to $18.5K)
6hr
NOAA forecast update cycle
85%+
NOAA accuracy at 48hr horizon
How It Works

Three data sources. One edge.

ForecastEdge continuously compares professional forecast data against live Polymarket pricing to surface mispriced contracts.

01

Ingest Forecasts

Pull real-time data from NOAA, Met Office, KMA, and other national weather services. Parse temperature ranges, precipitation probability, and confidence intervals.

02

Compare to Market

Map forecast data to Polymarket weather contracts. Calculate implied probability vs forecast probability. Flag contracts where the gap exceeds your threshold.

03

Surface the Edge

Display profitable opportunities ranked by edge size, market liquidity, and time to resolution. Know exactly which contracts are mispriced and by how much.

Target Markets

Where the money lives

Not all weather markets are equal. These cities have the deepest liquidity and the widest forecast-to-market gaps.

New York City Highest liquidity
London Best returns/trade
Seoul Growing fast
Chicago Volatile = profitable

The weather doesn't care about market sentiment.

That's the edge. Professional forecasts move first. Markets follow. ForecastEdge sits in between.